Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 18.421369 22.252635 26.479696 31.462357 37.146963 43.402247 50.777018
2025-09-07 12.993572 18.021086 24.147996 32.043128 41.818123 53.392155 67.990734
2025-09-14 9.461316 14.744443 21.729527 31.379768 44.082451 59.938782 80.902669
2025-09-21 7.599033 13.081877 20.840026 32.173824 47.818350 68.140079 95.954570
2025-09-28 5.621162 10.761267 18.566929 30.629024 48.069889 71.601848 104.870102
2025-10-05 4.772859 9.966633 18.312072 31.782082 51.953749 79.945806 120.462822
2025-10-12 4.028776 9.168237 17.891063 32.560680 55.252106 87.554812 135.308743
2025-10-19 3.400285 8.427299 17.425515 33.159026 58.239595 94.786562 149.855102
2025-10-26 2.924472 7.864554 17.159288 34.000730 61.583217 102.615704 165.484804
2025-11-02 2.368311 6.998750 16.216057 33.586809 62.881884 107.435746 176.917049
2025-11-09 1.982637 6.403412 15.672220 33.768290 65.086148 113.642096 190.527120
2025-11-16 1.613233 5.741670 14.890856 33.423893 66.359694 118.428880 202.146112
2025-11-23 1.212154 4.896937 13.657693 32.229857 66.311909 121.461509 211.746738
2025-11-30 1.012315 4.537513 13.401603 32.867635 69.473613 129.751346 229.765554
2025-12-07 0.773171 3.956642 12.535643 32.194096 70.247061 134.200900 241.978242
2025-12-14 0.653669 3.715440 12.417635 33.004336 73.713034 143.156219 261.506975
2025-12-21 0.460306 3.096443 11.232744 31.428397 72.645085 144.502577 268.980223
2025-12-28 0.400136 2.977782 11.322409 32.604742 76.807316 154.797003 291.101655
2026-01-04 0.337259 2.811112 11.247769 33.398957 80.267040 164.002926 311.711207
2026-01-11 0.279695 2.632505 11.102504 34.009248 83.388475 172.721225 331.755500
2026-01-18 0.236583 2.500314 11.067573 34.867676 87.037318 182.473412 353.757493
2026-01-25 0.178033 2.224173 10.525637 34.445543 88.067943 187.624327 368.232432
2026-02-01 0.140465 2.043380 10.246439 34.630626 90.334790 195.038879 386.681161